道琼斯指数腰斩是进场信号？

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now halved from its peak. That is going some. From a high of 14,164 early in October 2007 it has taken only 503 days to fall 50 per cent, a full 320 days faster than the ludicrously overvalued Nikkei 225 took to halve after Japan’s bubble burst. To be fair, the Nikkei almost got there at twice the clip as the Dow before bouncing like a samurai’s severed head.

道琼斯指数如今已从最高点跌落一半。这可是相当快。从2007年10月初14164点的高位，该指数仅仅用了503天就下跌了50%，比日本泡沫破灭后，估值高得离谱的日经225指数从最高点腰斩的时间足足快了320天。但公平地说，日经指数飙升至顶峰的时间几乎比道琼斯指数快了一倍，然后才像掉落的武士人头那样落地反弹。

Forget the destruction of wealth and terrible repercussions for those approaching retirement. This is also a betrayal. America believes in equities, its investment philosophy summed up in best-selling books such as Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run. Warren Buffett, high priest of the “buy and hold” view, is one of America’s most trusted citizens.

且不提财富的摧毁和对即将退休人士的可怕打击。这还是一种背叛。美国人相信股市，其投资哲学体现于杰里米•西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)的《股史风云话投资》(Stocks for the Long Run)等畅销书中。长期推崇“购买并持有”理念的沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)，在美国是最受信任的人士之一。

What if he is wrong? What if, like Japan, this is only the beginning and the Dow has another quarter-odd century left to fall, or just flatlines? After all, it never regained its 1929 peak until 1954. Normally, such agonising would be a fair indication that it is time to buy. Is it? Those investors, such as Mr Buffett, who banged the table towards the end of last year imploring punters to re-enter the market have already lost another fifth of their money.

如果他错了呢？如果，像日本那样，这只是痛苦的开始，道琼斯指数还有大约四分之一个世纪将继续下滑，或只是持平？毕竟，该指数直到1954年才重返在1929年达到的顶峰。正常情况下，这样的苦恼将是一个不错的指标，说明进场的时机到了。但现在是进场的时候吗？包括巴菲特在内，那些在去年末大声呼吁股民重新进场的投资者，已经又亏损了五分之一的资金。

Sure, US equities now look cheap – the forward price/earnings ratio of the S&P500 is just 12 times compared with an average of 17 since 1923. But they also looked tempting on 15 times four months ago. Stocks can overshoot on the downside. Still, in the past 14 recessions, the average trough valuation has been 11 times, according to Capital Economics. But just as the “p” sometimes falls too far, the “e” can also plummet. That is the worry now: corporate profits are collapsing and investors are losing hope that there is anything the government, the Fed or anybody else can do about it.

没错，美国股票现在看上去相当便宜。标普500指数的预期市盈率只有12倍，远低于1923年以来17倍的平均数。但在4个月前预期市盈率为15倍的时候，股市看上去也是有吸引力的。股价下跌有可能超出合理范围。不过，根据英国经济研究机构Capital Economics的研究，在过去的14次衰退中，股市的最低市盈率平均为11倍。但是，正如市盈率中的“价格”有时可能跌得过深，“盈利”也有可能滑坡。这正是如今人们所担心的：企业盈利正在崩溃，而投资者正失去希望，认为政府、美联储(Fed)或其它任何方面对此都无能为力。